Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish on Short-Term Bitcoin Outlook
In a research note distributed to institutional clients on April 4, 2026, Goldman Sachs digital assets team led by analyst Mathew McDermott made a contrarian call: Bitcoin is likely near its local bottom and could recover to the $78,000-$82,000 range by the end of April.
The note, titled “Digital Assets: Capitulation Signals and Recovery Catalysts,” argues that the current sell-off driven by the U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed Bitcoin into “deeply oversold territory” on multiple technical and on-chain metrics.
“Our quantitative models suggest Bitcoin is trading at a 15-20% discount to fair value based on network activity, hash rate, and institutional positioning. The current fear-driven selling is creating an attractive entry point for medium-term allocators.” — Mathew McDermott, Head of Digital Assets, Goldman Sachs
Key Arguments for a Bottom
Goldmans analysis rests on several converging indicators:
- Funding rates have turned deeply negative on perpetual futures, historically a sign of excessive bearish positioning that precedes short squeezes
- Exchange reserves have hit new lows, with only 2.3 million BTC remaining on exchanges, suggesting long-term holders are not selling
- The MVRV Z-Score has entered the undervalued zone for the first time since November 2022
- Mining hash rate continues to make all-time highs despite the price decline, indicating miner confidence
Institutional Positioning Data
Goldmans proprietary data on institutional flows tells a nuanced story. While retail investors and short-term traders are aggressively selling, several categories of institutional investors have been quietly accumulating:
- Sovereign wealth funds: Net buyers of $420 million in Bitcoin ETFs over the past two weeks
- Pension funds: Maintained positions, with minimal net selling
- Hedge funds: Mixed, with macro funds selling but crypto-native funds buying
- Corporate treasuries: MicroStrategy and others continue scheduled purchases
Price Targets and Scenarios
Goldman outlined three scenarios for Bitcoins near-term trajectory:
- Base case (60% probability): Gradual recovery to $78,000-$82,000 by end of April as geopolitical fears moderate
- Bull case (20% probability): Rapid recovery to $90,000+ on a diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire
- Bear case (20% probability): Further decline to $55,000-$58,000 if the conflict escalates to involve major oil infrastructure attacks
Macro Backdrop
The Goldman team notes that the Federal Reserves stance provides a potential tailwind for risk assets. With inflation expectations temporarily elevated by energy prices, the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its May meeting. However, Goldmans economists believe a rate cut is likely in June or July if the conflict resolves and oil prices normalize, which would be a significant positive catalyst for Bitcoin.
Caveats and Risks
The analysts acknowledge significant uncertainty around their bullish call. The primary risk remains a further escalation of the Iran conflict, particularly any disruption to oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil trade. Such a scenario could trigger a global recession, which would be bearish for all risk assets including crypto.
Goldman also notes that regulatory developments remain a wildcard. The SEC is expected to make decisions on several Ethereum ETF applications in May, and any surprise denials could dampen sentiment. The note concludes that investors should “size positions appropriately given the elevated uncertainty, but the risk-reward at current levels favors accumulation.”
